Use of microbial risk assessment to inform the national estimate of acute gastrointestinal illness attributable to microbes in drinking water.

Microbial risk assessment (MRA) evaluates the likelihood of adverse human health effects that occur following exposure to pathogenic microorganisms. This paper focuses on the potential use of MRA to provide insight to the national estimate of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in the United States among persons served by public water systems. This article defines MRA, describes how MRA is implemented, provides an overview of the field of MRA and discusses how MRA may be useful for characterizing the national estimate. Communities served by drinking water systems with relatively contaminated source waters, sub-standard treatment facilities, and/or contamination problems in their distribution systems are subject to higher risks than communities where such issues are less of a concern. Further, the risk of illness attributable to pathogens in drinking water in each community can be thought of as the sum of the risk from the treated drinking water and the risk from the distribution system. Pathogen-specific MRAS could be developed to characterize the risk associated with each of these components; however, these assessments are likely to under-estimate the total risk from all pathogens attributable to drinking water. Potential methods for developing such MRAs are discussed along with their associated limitations.